Friday, June 09, 2006

The 2006 Season begins in Bahrain

The 2006 Formula 1 season begins, bizarrely, in Bahrain. It is things like this that ruin my mood. The inclusion of Bahrain on the calendar two years ago made me bilious but I accepted reality eventually. I told myself that it was mostly a non-event; an opportunity for the Arabs to show off their money and not really a serious motor sporting occasion. To start the season in Bahrain rather than in beautiful Melbourne (as has been the tradition for the last few years) considerably raises the profile of this most ridiculous of circuits. Remember the story about the camel and the tent? Let the camel put his leg in, then his head and soon it will be you, the owner of the tent, sitting freezing outside while the camel enjoys himself. Blasted Bernie Ecclestone.

Enough about Bahrain, let's focus on the season. There are, after all, eighteen other races on the calendar this year.

There are significant changes to the cars this year. Gone are the grunty V10 engines which we grew to love and respect. In their place are smaller and, allegedly, cheaper V8s. The teams' application of technology is such that I do not expect there to be much of a difference in performance. What I do expect is increased unreliability. My prediction is that reliability and not speed will be the one factor that decides this year's championship

I believe that the two teams with the best prospect of winning the championships (the plural is used deliberately) are McLaren and Renault. Both are very quick and both have very talented drivers driving for them. McLaren have the edge on Renault when it comes to speed but the jury is out on the reliability of the new V8 Mercedes engine.

More than just this year's championship may hang on the reliability of the V8 Mercedes. In a shocking move at the end of last year, Mclaren announced to the world that they had signed on world champion, Fernando Alonso , as a driver for 2007. I do not think Ron Dennis was paying too close attention to the message he was sending to the men he was paying to drive for him in 2006 at the time. The excitement of signing on the young, new world champion was obviously too much for him to contain. Juan Pablo Montoya reacted by immediately making it known that he was on the market for 2007. Kimi Raikkonen did nothing to contradict the open secret that Ferrari wanted him to succeed Michael Schumacher. If the Mercedes keeps blowing up, both drivers WILL walk.

If you look at the earnings figures below, you will see why Alonso chose to move.

Michael Schumacher $62.4 million

Ralf Schumacher $20.4 million

Kimi Raikkonen $14.4 million

Juan Pablo Montoya $13.2 million

Rubens Barrichello $12 million

Jarno Trulli $9.6 million

Fernando Alonso,
Jenson Button,
David Coulthard and
Mark Webber $7.2 million

Giancarlo Fisichella and
Nick Heidfeld $6 million

Jacques Villeneuve $3.6 million

Clearly, Renault are not serious. If the reigning Wold Champion is so far behind all these other drivers in earnings, he is undoubtedly within his rights to be looking for more money. Fernando Alonso is, remarkably, paid the same amount as Mark Webber, Jenson Button and David Coulthard. Neither Jenson Button nor Mark Webber has ever won a race. To the best of my recollection, it has been at least two years since David Coulthard stood on the top step of the podium. What about Ralf Schumacher makes him worth nearly three times more than the World Champion other than the surname he bears? Alonso must have looked at these figures and said "sod this, I am not going to be shafted so blatantly!"

The rumour about is that there may be more to this than meets the eye. It is thought that Renault intend to leave F1 at the end of this season (which would make Alonso’s move a very smart one). This would be a bizarre move given the current dominance of the team. Renault have been using their new found dominance to advertise their road cars lately. Advertisements in magazines and on hoardings all feature Alonso’s winning Renault of 2005. Why give this up? Well, here is a possible answer: Renault is a French company…

If you look at what the bookies are saying, the smart money is on Fernando Alonso retaining his title. Renault are 2-1 (Ladbrokes and SkyBet) to win the constructors' championship again. McLaren are at 9-4 (Bet365). Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya (10-1 with SkyBet for the drivers' title) Ferrari (5-1 with Paddy Power for the constructors' championship) Michael Schumacher (9-2 with Paddy Power for the drivers' title) Felipe Massa (33-1, general), Rubens Barrichello (20-1, Totesport) Jenson Button (9-1 Blue Square and Paddy Power).

Whatever might be said to the contrary, I cannot see Michael Schumacher wanting to carry on beyond this season. Like Alexander the Great, there are no worlds left for Michael Schumacher to conquer. He may want to go out with a bang by bagging yet another world championship but Ferrari do not seem to have the equipment to allow him to do this. In addition, they are the only major team using Bridgestone tyres which, as we saw last year, are no match for the Michelins used by everybody else. The reintroduction of tyre changes during a race may help the scarlet cars but I think the unbeatable Ferrari-Bridgestone has finally been overhauled. I expect that the super-efficient German may be able to scrape a couple of race victories but my advice is to concentrate on three chaps: Fernando Alonso, Kimi Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya (I am re-designing the living room so that Chipo can find the space for her cartwheels!).

If you are British, you will be yelling at me for ignoring blue-eyed English boy, Jenson Button. This is the season in which he must win a race. Far too much noise has been made about the chap hitherto and his supporters are beginning to express their frustration. To remain a “name” Jenson Button simply has no choice: he has to win a Grand Prix very soon.

Ho hum, then. It may be taking place in Bahrain but it is still a Formula 1 Grand Prix. It is going to be a long season, so start as you mean to continue. Seek out some Bahraini beer (is there any such stuff?), put some skewered bits of lamb under the grill and,

Enjoy Bahrain!

Gitau

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