Monday, July 17, 2006

Ferrari triumph in France

I had this commentary written in my head on Saturday morning before qualifying. So sure was I that the Renault-Michelin combination would triumph at their home Grand Prix that I had dedicated my piece to the incomparable French national anthem, La Marsellaise. Countries tend to have namby-pamby prayers as their anthems. They are all a flimsy variation of the same theme: "God bless our country". "Pah!" say the French, "none of that merde for us. Our anthem is going to be a call to arms! Aux armes, citoyens, Formez vos bataillons, Marchons, marchons! Qu'un sang impur Abreuve nos sillons! (To arms, citizens! Form your battalions! Let us march, let us march! May impure blood Soak our fields' furrows!).

I had visions of the little Spaniard in the employ of the French driving his Renault past the chequered flag on Sunday with the partisan French crowd bursting out in an emotional rendition of La Marsellaise. But it was not to be. In a cruel repeat of the events in Berlin a week previously, the Italians were once again on hand to ruin the French party. Bastards. Once Michael Schumacher had nailed pole position on Saturday you knew things were going to be bad. Schumacher on pole position at Magny Cours…well, you might as well go home then. Nobody knows how to win the French Grand Prix better than the German android. He led a largely processional race from pole to the finish to earn himself some more unbelievable statistics. This was his 88th career win and his 150th podium. Also, he became the first man to win the same Grand Prix eight times. Somebody needs to shoot this bastard…

Schumacher's form may be at its commanding height and Ferrari may be back on top but the battle to win the world championship is a steep uphill one. Now more than ever, Ferrari require the services of their number two, Felipe Massa. It is crucial that Massa denies Alonso points by consistently finishing races ahead of the world champion. To be world champion again, Michael Schumacher needs to score eighteen points. There are only seven races left. If Schumacher wins the lot of them, and Alonso comes second every time, Schumacher will only achieve fourteen points - four fewer than he needs. Those crucial four points are all down to Felipe Massa: Ferrari have to do at least two one-twos if Michael Schumacher is to be crowned world champion.

I had my doubts about Massa's ability to defend Schumacher but these were quashed decisively this weekend. Massa performed superbly by qualifying second on Saturday. He then proceeded to produce a sterling "protect-the-leader" effort on Saturday when Alonso, in third place, attempted a daredevil overtaking manoeuvre on him at the first corner. Defensive driving worthy of any world champion forced Alonso to yield - Massa was that good. Unfortunately for him Renault's technical director, a man with too many teeth called Pat Symonds, proved himself to be the equal of Ferrari's strategic genius, Ross Brawn. Symonds worked out that Ferrari were on a three-stop strategy. In a clever effort at damage limitation, he switched Alonso to a two-stopper. This was not enough to get Alonso ahead of the race leader but it was certainly enough to deny Massa second place. By coming second, therefore, Alonso only sacrificed two points to Schumacher. The deficit is now 17 points. It may end up very close by the last race but the championship is still Alonso's to lose. Neither he nor Schumacher dares contemplate a retirement before the final showdown in Brazil.

Retirement is the word constantly ringing in the ears of English wonder boy, Jenson Button. What an absolutely dreadful season he is having. First he qualified so appallingly on Saturday that Honda were in the ranks of the lower orders; the teams that exist merely to make up the numbers. Then his engine blew up ten laps from the finish line. As if this was not bad enough for Honda, Rubens Barrichello also failed to finish. The Honda bosses must be punching walls in Tokyo. This is not what was intended at the start of the season. What must be particularly galling for them is that things look to have finally come right at Toyota. Ralf Schumacher's fourth place ahead of Kimi Raikkonen was a splendid effort. To beat McLaren is what Toyota have been aiming for since they came into F1 with sackfuls of cash a few years ago.

McLaren did a lot better than I expected. Although only one driver, Kimi Raikkonen, managed to secure some points (two for fifth place), at least both cars finished reliably. Pedro de la Rosa's seventh place suggests to me that McLaren's rhythm has not been terribly upset by the premature departure of Juan Pablo Montoya. Not even Chipo would argue with this analysis.

Friends, we have been here before. The two years when Mika Hakkinen beat Michael Schumacher to the world championship, 1998 and 1999, Ferrari failed to score points early in the season and were chasing McLaren right to the end. It is always easier to lead than to chase. Michael Schumacher knows this: witness his championship of 2002 when he had the job done well before the end. Only now are we seeing the anti-Schumacher effect of the new points scoring system. The number of points second and third placed drivers receive was increased to stop Schumacher ending championships too early. It is working. In the old days the gap between winning and coming second was a massive four points - the kind of gap Schumacher now desperately needs.

Yesterday's race might have been a boring, processional affair but it may well hold the key to the 2006 world championship.

Gitau
17 July 2006